New York State’s total nonagricultural employment decreased sharply in the 4th quarter 2008. Downstate New York was the hardest hit area, with New York City losing close to 39,000 jobs in the 4th quarter. Buffalo declined the fastest out of the upstate communities. Upstate New York has remained somewhat insulated from the effects of the economic downturn.

The Information, Government, and Other Services sectors were the bright spots in the in the 4th quarter, modestly gaining jobs while all other sectors decreased. The Goods producing sectors continued to contract. The Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction sector lost jobs at the fastest rate state wide this quarter, while Manufacturing continues its steady decline. The Professional and Business Services sector was decreased the fastest out of the service providing industries.

New York State lost jobs at a 10% rate from November to December, a rate of decline that has been exceeded only once since 1990—from September to October 2001, when employment dropped at a rate of 12%.  Poughkeepsie, Buffalo, and Long Island lost jobs in December at the fastest rates while Utica-Rome posted the best result by holding employment nearly steady. 

The United States lost jobs at an annualized rate of 5% in both November and December. New York State lost jobs at a faster rate in November and December than the national economy, losing jobs at a 6% and a 10% rate respectively.  New York gained jobs earlier in the year while the national economy steadily lost jobs since December of 2007.  New York State lost about 119,000 jobs (-1%) from December 2007 to Dec 2008.  The United States lost jobs at a faster rate (-2%) over the same period of time.

The government sector, which includes Federal, State and local levels, declined significantly from November to December at a rate of about 4%.  This sector averaged an annualized rate of growth of 0.6% over the last 10 years. Rochester decreased the fasted in December losing government jobs at a double digit rate.  The government sector only expanded in Long Island and Albany in the month of December. 

New York State experienced year over growth in the public sector jobs sector since October 2006, averaging about a 1% change year over year since that time.  Year over year growth has been slowing since July and reached a 0.1% rate in December, a rate that has not been seen since November 2006.  Buffalo-Niagara Falls lead the state in public sector job growth increasing about 2% from December 2007 levels.  Syracuse decreased at the fastest rate loosing government jobs at about 2% rate.

Total employment in NYS declined in November by 4.1% to 8.7 million.  This is a 0.4% decline from 2007’s level of employment.  Compared to last year’s level, the Financial Activities sector declined the most statewide losing close to 16,000 jobs (-2.2%). This is undoubtedly the result of financial firm layoffs in the wake of the credit crunch.  Education and Health Services sector increased the most, gaining close to 21,500 jobs (1.3%). This sector may not continue to expand given the fiscal problems faced by the state.  Employment in the Leisure and Hospitality sector contracted the most in November from the previous month.  While employment in most sectors declined over the month there was growth in the Information, Other Services and Government sectors.

In December 2008 the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), made the determination that the nation was officially in a recession.  Employment in New York began to decline in September 2008.  Unlike the recession of 2001, where employment in the state only decreased, statewide employment data shows some months of growth, prior to the decline. New York State’s employment level declined by 2.24% in the 2001 recession.  To date, the state’s employment levels have only decreased by 0.24%.

The three sectors that decreased the most since the onset of the recession are: Manufacturing (-2.6%), Financial Activities (-1.7%), and Trade (-1.1%).  The Financial Activities and Trade sectors resemble the total employment trend, growing between the two recessionary periods and shrinking during the recession.  Manufacturing on the other hand is more of a continual decline.

Total employment in NYS declined in October from the previous month.  Seasonally-adjusted total employment declined by a 1.4% annualized rate in NYS.  Long Island, Buffalo and Westchester/Rockland/Putnam regions all saw employment decline more than 2%.  New York City, Poughkeepsie and Albany all saw slight losses.  Only two metros—Utica-Rome and Rochester—added jobs over the month. 
The state’s Leisure & Hospitality sector increased slightly from the previous year and has grown every year since 2002 with an average annual increase in jobs of 2%. As shown below, the greatest increases from a year ago were in Buffalo and New York City. 

Month-to-month, however, the data tell a different story. With a possible recession setting in, every region except Utica-Rome and Long Island declined in Leisure & Hospitality employment. Buffalo lost the highest percentage of these jobs in the state, 31.2% from the previous month. The Leisure & Hospitality sector may suffer more than other sectors as consumers prepare for the economic downturn, not only in the state, but nationally as well. According to the BEA, national personal consumption expenditures declined in the 3rd quarter for the first time in 17 years. 

Despite the well-publicized challenges in the credit markets and anticipated deficits for the state budget, New York State continued to add jobs in the third quarter, although at a slower rate (0.4%) than over the year (0.7%). As has been the case for several years, metros along the Hudson Valley from Albany through to NYC and Long Island, outperformed the remainder of the state. Rochester and Utica-Rome showed the greatest weakness in job loss, with Rochester declining at a 2% rate (annualized) from the second to third quarters.

Manufacturing employment continued to drop statewide in the 3rd quarter of 2008, declining at an annualized rate of 2.9% after seeing an annualized rate of decline of 3.8% in the 2nd quarter. Every region lost manufacturing jobs in the 3rd quarter with Poughkeepsie having the most manufacturing job’s lost with 5.7%. Financial Activities sector had a 3% job loss in the 3rd quarter, close to the 2.9% job loss in the 2nd quarter. The leisure and hospitality sector had the highest increase of jobs with a rate of 1.7% statewide in the 3rd quarter.

Total employment in NYS declined in September from the previous month. Seasonally-adjusted total employment declined by a 1.1% annualized rate in NYS. Albany, Poughkeepsie, Long Island, New York City, Westchester/Rockland/Putnam, Binghamton and Rochester regions showed significant declines in employment from the previous month. Utica-Rome led the way with a 2.7% increase with Syracuse also showing increase in employment.

Educational & Health Services has been a relative bright spot for a number of metros in NYS over the previous year. Nassau-Suffolk added about 2.6% to employment rolls in this sector from the previous year. All but Buffalo-Niagara Falls added jobs.

NYS continued to add total employment in August at the same rate as July, 0.9% (seasonally-adjusted at an annualized rate). The Hudson Valley continued its relatively strong showing with Albany, Poughkeepsie, Westchester/Rockland/Putnam counties and NYC posting the fastest growth in the state. Year-over-year employment grew about 0.5%.

Professional & Business Services has been a relative bright spot for a number of metros in NYS over the previous year. Albany and Poughkeepsie added about 2% to employment rolls in this sector. All but Binghamton, Nassau-Suffolk and Rochester added jobs.

Total employment in NYS continued to rise in July over the previous month. Seasonally-adjusted total employment grew just under 1% at an annualized rate. Monthly declines were registered by Albany, Syracuse and Utica-Rome. The lower Hudson Valley—Westchester, Rockland and Putnam counties—posted the fastest growth, nearly 3% on an annualized basis.

Trouble on Wall Street was reflected in employment in the financial services sector. Comparing employment in July 2008 to the year previous, New York State lost 1.4%, while Utica-Rome lost almost 5% of its employment in this area. Buffalo saw an increase of almost 3% in New York State’s employment in financial activities, with only Syracuse also seeing a small increase.

New York State’s total nonagricultural employment declined slightly from the 1st quarter of 2008 to the 2nd quarter of 2008. Utica-Rome’s total nonagricultural employment fell at an annualized rate of 3%, the most severe decline of any region. Long Island, Rochester, Syracuse and Binghamton also each saw a decrease of at least 1%. No metropolitan region saw an increase in total nonagricultural employment of more than 0.5%.

Manufacturing employment continued to drop statewide in the 2nd quarter of 2008, declining at an annualized rate of 3.8% after seeing an annualized rate of decline of 2.5% in the 1st quarter. Every region lost manufacturing jobs in the 2nd quarter with New York City “leading the way” with an annualized rate of manufacturing job loss of 10.7%.

Driven by New York City’s 2.7% increase and Syracuse’s 1.8% increase, New York State’s employment in information increased by 0.7% from June 2007 to June 2008. Binghamton lost 4.5% of its employment in this area during this time period, while Utica-Rome also saw a decrease of almost 4%.

Total non-agricultural employment remained nearly unchanged statewide from May to June.

Driven by Utica-Rome’s 2% increase and New York City’s 1.5% increase, New York State’s employment in transportation, warehousing & public utilities increased by 1% from May 2007 to May 2008. Binghamton lost 2.8% of its total employment in these areas during this time period, while Poughkeepsie and Nassau-Suffolk also saw decreases of at least 1%.

New York State’s trade employment increased very slightly from April 2007 to April 2008. New York City saw the sharpest increase, as its trade employment rose by 2%, with Binghamton and Syracuse also seeing gains of more than 1%. No region’s trade employment decreased by more than 0.5% during this time period, and of the regions displayed, only Albany, Nassau-Suffolk, and Putnam-Rockland-Westchester saw any decrease in trade employment.

New York State’s total nonagricultural employment rose slightly from the 4th quarter of 2007 to the 1st quarter of 2008.  Long Island and the Utica-Rome region led the way, with total nonagricultural employment in each growing at an annualized rate of 2.4%.  The lower Hudson Valley, Buffalo, Syracuse and New York City all showed annualized growth of at least 1%.  Total nonagricultural employment remained effectively unchanged in Rochester, Binghamton and Albany.

Manufacturing and professional and business services were the hardest-hit sectors, each losing jobs at an annualized rate of at least 2.5%.  Every region except the lower Hudson Valley lost manufacturing jobs with Poughkeepsie and New York City losing these jobs at an annualized rate of 5% or more.  Statewide, employment in Transportation, Warehousing & Public Utilities and Leisure & Hospitality each grew at an annualized rate greater than 4%.

New York State’s manufacturing employment decreased nearly three percent from March 2007 to March 2008. New York City saw the sharpest decrease, as it lost 7% of its manufacturing employment during this time period. Every region displayed saw a decrease in manufacturing employment, with all regions but Binghamton and the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester area losing more than 1% of their manufacturing employment.

This continues a longstanding trend. Total manufacturing stood at 765,000 jobs in January 2000. Losses through March 2008 comprise about 27% of the 2000 total. Manufacturing remains a significant source of employment for many NYS metros, comprising more than 10% of the total for Buffalo, Rochester and Binghamton.

New York State’s natural resources & construction employment increased almost two percent from February 2007 to February 2008.  The largest proportional growth was experienced by Binghamton and the Utica-Rome area.  The most significant numerical contributions were made by NYC and Long Island, adding about 8,200 jobs between them.  Only Albany and the Buffalo area saw a decrease in natural resources & construction employment during this time period.

New York State’s total nonagricultural employment increased nearly 1% from January 2007 to January 2008.  This increase was driven primarily by expansion in New York City and its metropolitan area.  Of the displayed regions, only Rochester saw a decrease in employment during this time period.  Albany employment was effectively unchanged from the previous year.

Month-over-month employment grew at about the same 1% rate into January statewide.  Buffalo, Poughkeepsie and Long Island all grew at a rate of 6% or more from December.